Cost-effectiveness analysis and sensitivity analysis, a guide for a probabilistic approach: execution of probabilistic sensitivity analysis in Microsoft Excel (Part II)

Abstract

This article is the second of two studies that discuss the context in which probabilistic sensitivity analysis are required (Part I) and how to develop such assessment in Microsoft Excel (Part II). In this report, it is described in a ludic and rational way, how to make a deterministic model become probabilistic, how to organize an economic evaluation in Microsoft Excel and also focus in how to create a probabilistic sensitivity analysis in the same software. Among the existing softwares used to develop economic evaluations, Microsoft Excel remains as the most transparent and versatile to create economic models in Health. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis results are summarized in table format, scatterplot chart representing cost-effectiveness plane and also in cost-effectiveness acceptability curve. This one shows the probability of a given technology be the most cost-effective according to a threshold or willingness to pay value.